18 June 2024
Photo scoopdyga.com
By Emmanuel Roussel
We have detailed fractions from the tracking system since 2020, covering four Prix de Diane Longines editions, won by Joan of Arc, Nashwa, Blue Rose Cen, and Sparkling Plenty, the current titleholder.
The colour-coded boxes show that these victories were achieved in very different ways. Nashwa led from start to finish at 2'6"6 on good-to-soft ground (3.4). Joan of Arc ran second behind Sibila Spain, dropping to third at the furlong pole before rallying to win in 2'9"1 on similar ground. In 2023, Blue Rose Cen moved from fourth to first by the straight, winning 2'5"1 on good-to-soft ground (3.4). Last Sunday, Sparkling Plenty was still second last with 2 furlongs to go, winning at 2'7"6 on similar ground.
Despite the rain on Sunday morning, times were much faster than in the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club (2'9"8 on soft ground, 4.2) and on that day across all distances.
On the 2nd last furlong, Sparkling Plenty moved from 13th to 3rd with an 11"2 split, 1/10th faster than Aventure and 2/100ths off Ace Impact's 2023 record-setting Jockey Club. Sparkling Plenty's trajectory was similar to Ace Impact's on that day. In the 2023 Diane, Blue Rose Cen didn't achieve the best split, which belonged to third-placed Tasmania, who clocked 11"2 on the 2nd last furlong while staying under 12" in the final split, a timing unmatched by any other runner. Ace Impact also finished faster than his rivals. Sparkling Plenty's final furlong was timed 11"8, matched by Survie, who had a better trip.
Tasmania returned two months after her outstanding performance to finish sixth in the Prix Minerve at Deauville over 1m1/2. She then won the Prix Jacques Laffitte (L) over 1m2f two months later. Now trained by Mark Prescott, she was entered in the Prix Corrida but hasn't raced in 2024 yet. She might target the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh on June 29. She's also entered in the Eclipse Stakes, the Irish Champion Stakes, and the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe over 2,400m, potentially facing Sparkling Plenty.
If that 11"2 split in the Prix de Diane Longines is significant, and she wintered well, Tasmania, a daughter of Australia, will be interesting to follow. According to the Racing Post, Australia's progeny generally excels over longer distances, with a 16% win rate over 2,800m or more, but she could be one of the many exceptions.
Like in America
Returning to our times and the 2024 Prix de Diane, the winner ran 14 days after winning the Prix de Sandringham's mile, her first major win three weeks after finishing sixth in the Emirates Poule d'Essai.
Sparkling Plenty's campaign mirrors the American Triple Crown, only with the two- and three-week gaps interverted. The distance progression is also comparable: the Triple Crown runs over 2,000m, 1,900m, and then 2,400m, while Sparkling Plenty ran two top-level 1,600m races before tackling 2,100m, a 31.3% increase in trip compared to the 20% jump from 2,000m to 2,400m in the USA.
With frequent travel between Callas, near Marseilles, and the Paris region, such a campaign would daunt more conservative trainers. This school of thought thrives and is supported by consistently successful horsemen.
However, an amusing statistic about the Prix de Diane Longines: in the last five editions, 9 of 79 runners raced within 21 days of their previous start, an 11.4% rate. Two (22.2%) won (Nashwa at 16 days and Sparkling Plenty at 14 days), one was second (Alpine Star at 15 days, in July 2020 due to scheduling changes), and one was fourth (Aventure, last Sunday, at 14 days). This results in a 44.4% success rate in the top four for 11.4% of the runners. Not a recipe, just reality.
Delius Steps Up
Winston Churchill supposedly said, "I only believe in statistics I falsified myself," and perhaps added, "And that's what amuses me."
Playing with time isn't an exact science, but it can put new reasons for excitement or doubt into perspective. Take Delius, for example, whose easy Prix du Lys (Gr3) win over 1m1/2 sparked debate among TV pundits. The Coolmore Stud representative won a Class 2 race over the same course before tackling this first Group race. The runner-up that day, Paraiba, finished 13th in the Prix de Diane Longines but did not perform well.
The final time was the stark difference between the Prix du Puits aux Chiens and Prix du Lys: the former ran 4"8 longer. The km rate dropped from 1'4"6 on May 11 on good ground (3.3) to 1'2"6 five weeks later. This difference was evident after 7f, with Polanzor leading both races, passing the 7f-post in 1'34"3 the first time and only 1'29"1 on Sunday, a 5"2 difference. Delius had to pass only four rivals, clocking sub-11" splits over one furlong twice in the Class 2 race. The more selective pace in the Prix du Lys Longines meant he reached higher speeds before delivering a decisive turn of foot. Notably, he ran faster from 5 to 4f than the next section (12"4 vs 13"0, common at Chantilly's uphill section) and accelerated over 2 furlongs to maintain his effort. Second-placed Saganti covered the final 3 furlongs fastest, with impressive 11"6 and 11"4 splits from 3f to 1f, but faltered at the end.
Marhaba Ya Sanafi, Still Going Strong
Third in the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club 54 weeks ago and an unlucky sixth in the Prix d'Ispahan recently, Marhaba Ya Sanafi was the clear favourite for the Prix Bertrand du Breuil Longines (Gr3). He lived up to expectations, first running with leader Left Sea but under pressure to the wire from Andromède, a year older. Andromède closed 3/10ths on him in the final 3 furlongs with a perfect trip (tracking data shows she covered nearly 4m less) and just missed by a head. Marhaba Ya Sanafi clocked 10"9 in the penultimate furlong, matching Andromède's split, but conceded 2/10ths in the final section, almost costing him the race.
In the Prix du Bois Longines (Gr3, 1,200m), favourite Daylight likely suffered from his draw in stall 8, leading in the centre while winner Arabie stuck to the rail. Arabie overtook him, with Secret Wood closing well to take second by a length (2/10ths). Daylight's 10"7 split in the second furlong was the race's fastest, possibly contributing to his defeat, though Arabie (10"8) and the last four also clocked sub-11" splits then. Secret Wood made up ground in the next section, the only one to go sub-11" there. Love Talk, fourth by 1.5 lengths, finished strongly. He clocked 24"1 for the final 400m, matching Secret Wood, compared to 24"4 and 24"7 for Arabie and Daylight.
Everything has its price.