4 June 2024
Photo scoopdyga.com
By Emmanuel Roussel
Qatar Jockey Club: Weight and Speed
Can a race's standing be estimated by timing the best runners' performance? In the USA, very popular indices are based on speed measurements. This is due to the relative uniformity of courses and surfaces and typical race paces, which are generally very fast from start to finish, similar to those in Hong Kong and Japan, but for entirely different reasons.
More than elsewhere in Europe, the tactical aspect of racing in France makes the operation more delicate. However, this difficulty fades at the highest level, particularly in races with more participants, such as the classics.
With its large fields, the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club is one of the most reliable supports for tracking. However, the stickier ground this year compared to previous editions has somewhat muddied the waters.
The handicappers' verdict has given Look de Vega a theoretical rating of 120 pounds, the third highest of the last five editions. Vadeni, in 2022, won by five lengths and thus received a rating of 123. Ace Impact, whose comeback from 10th to 1st place over the last 3 furlongs, covered in 34’’ on a 3.2 ground, earned him a rating of 125. He also broke the race record.
It is known that a race's rating is established based on the average of the top four finishers.
Here are the average ratings of the last five Qatar Prix du Jockey Club, along with their equivalent in kilograms and the number of subsequent Group 1 wins by the top four finishers, including the names of the subsequent Group 1 winners:
2020: 114 (51.75kg) – 2 (Mishriff)
2021: 115 (52.125kg) – 3 (St Mark’s Basilica, Sealiway)
2022: 115 (52.25kg) – 4 (Vadeni, Modern Games)
2023: 117 (53kg) – 3 (Ace Impact, Big Rock, Feed the Flame)
2024: 116 (52.5kg)
With only a year's hindsight, the 2023 edition already justifies its status as superior. Despite the differences in ground conditions between these last two editions, can we try to find clues to better gauge last Sunday's race, especially its winner?
Like Ace Impact, Look de Vega recorded the fastest furlong of the race in 11’’5, compared to 11’’2 a year earlier, and 11’’6 and 11’’5 for St. Mark’s Basilica and the exceptional Vadeni. This is all the more remarkable as the track was slower than in previous editions, with Mishriff's race in 2020 also held in July on a 3.3 ground.
Look de Vega also recorded the fastest last 3 furlongs split behind Ace Impact's but with a significant difference: the time he took him to reach the finish line was seven seconds longer than that of the future 2023 Arc winner. Yet, the leaders faded at the end in both of these Jockey Clubs, indicating a fairly sustained pace given the ground conditions. Fast Tracker and Ramadan took the lead last Sunday and were not outsiders. The former was the betting favourite! They both might have lacked stamina, and the former was too keen with a new rider, but the ground probably wasn't conducive to records this year, even though several times were comparable to those recorded at this meeting in 2021 and 2022.
In 2022, the best time over one furlong was set by the unfortunate Onesto, the fastest over the last three furlongs (35’’5), when he moved from 14th to 5th place. We know what happened next: he won the Grand Prix de Paris in quick succession, just like Feed the Flame, 4th last year after recording the second fastest time of the race over 200 meters. His run was almost identical to that of the tenacious and valiant Marhaba Ya Sanafi (Onesto, himself, ran in the wake of the 4th placed Al Hakeem, future winner of the Grand Prix de Deauville-Gr2).
A 2024 Qatar Prix du Jockey Club participant followed a similar trajectory: Mondo Man. The 5th placed horse moved from 10th, then 8th to 5th, finishing close to Ghostwriter. His best 200m split, in 11’’52, is very close to the winner's. He also recorded the fastest last 3 furlongs of the field, four-tenths faster than Look de Vega. Sunway isn't far off after a run that was too far back. Where will the second, third, and fifth from the Prix La Force (Gr3) take us, given that the winner, Atlast, finished last Sunday? Second in the Qatar Jockey Club, First Look, third in La Force, also beat Grecian Storm, not necessarily favoured on Sunday, and Atlast in the Prix de Guiche (Gr3), whose winner, the gelding Darlinghurst, soon runs at Royal Ascot… If he runs well in England, Look de Vega's performance will take on an even more convincing dimension.
Last note on the ratings of recent editions of the French Derby: the average rating of the horses finishing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th is as follows:
2020: 113 (51.3kg)
2021: 114 (51.5kg)
2022: 113 (51.2kg)
2023: 114 (51.8kg)
2024: 114 (51.8kg)
The variations are relatively small. Thus, each year, the race takes an extraordinary winner to hold its rank. It's strange to consider the top four finishers of a race to establish its rating.
Regarding speed...
The Qatar Prix du Jockey Club undercard includes all extremes: three sprints, two of which are over 5 furlongs, along with the 50,000€ race for 2-year-old maidens, alternating with two 1m1/2 races, including the Grand Prix de Chantilly (Gr3) and the Prix de Royaumont (Gr3), without mentioning the Grand Handicap de Chantilly, also run over a mile and a half.
Let's focus on the sprints...
Whether in La Flèche (L) won by the English 2-year-old Francisco’s Piece, in the Prix du Gros-Chêne (Gr2) dominated by Ponntos, better than ever, or in the Prix Marchand d’Or (L) over 6 furlongs, the truth came from the front group.
Quickly well ahead, Ponntos didn't need to break records over 200 metres to keep the lead. Six of his rivals went faster than him over a furlong in the race, but he had won the race early and maintained the pressure throughout, also recording the second fastest time in the last furlong, covered faster only by Cœur de Pierre. The season of the Czech champion could be exciting. At 6 years old, this horse is probably better than ever. It's the advantage of sprinters: they can last.
Over the Prix Marchand d’Or (L)'s 6-furlong trip, the first two, Jasna’s Secret and Flers, showed great tenacity. They were the only two survivors, along with third-place Grand Scoop, from the front group. However, in the last two furlongs, Jasna’s Secret was way above the rest. It was a great performance by the Lerner-trained filly, once again honoured on this beautiful classic day.
And regarding stamina...
Three 2,400-meter/1m4f races were scheduled this Sunday, including the RMC Grand Handicap de Chantilly, won by the favourite Sacred Spirit. His time was 2/10ths better than Junko's in the Grand Prix but 1’’7 slower than Aventure's dominant win in the Prix de Royaumont (Gr3). But it was in the Grand Prix that the leaders went the furthest, with the best furlong time among these three races belonging to Grand Prix also-ran Goliath, who was held too far back in a less selective race than the other two. Marquisat, second by a nose to Junko, however, covered his last 3 furlongs almost 2/10ths faster than the winner, and Dubai Honour did even better, but from further back.
It was in the Grand Prix that the front-runners had the last word, while the winners of the other two 1m1/2 races of the day came from behind.